13 February 1999

Poor Manpower Planning leads to
unemployment amongst Doctors and Dentists

(Keywords:- unemployment, medical graduates, manpower planning, oversupply)

          In a few more days, Hong Kong will enter into the Year of the Rabbit. Let us hope that the agile image of this adorable pet will bring Hong Kong out of our economic turmoil.

          Economic downturn has brought about an unprecedented unemployment rate of 5.8% at the last count -- an all time high for Hong Kong and worse is expected to come. This ¡§unemployment¡¨ saga has extended beyond the white and blue collar. Even the professionals are by no means exempted.

          As early as 1992, medical graduates were facing difficulties in finding employment after they finished their one-year  compulsory internship. The reason is obvious: there were more graduates than job supplies. Furthermore, the attractive remuneration package of the Hospital Authority (HA) has resulted in a marked decrease in wastage rate even amongst senior professionals leaving for private practice.

          The imbalance rose to a crescendo in 1997 when over 80  interns were left out in the cold, unable to secure proper employment for the same reasons, aggravated by the poor market of private practice following economic depression.

          More, against the previous prediction that professional mass exodus would take place nearing the change of sovereignty due to lack of  confidence, there was instead an unexpected overwhelming number of returnees. These were well trained professionals who have left for supposedly a safer haven in the North American continent or Australia in the late 80s and were returning after having obtained a foreign right of abode, progressive regained confidence in Hong Kong and being failed to secure proper jobs in their newly acquired homeland.

          What is the status now and the projection into the future?

          In a recent reply to a question raised at the Legislative Council, the Secretary for Health and Welfare has given the following figures: in 1999-2000, HA will provide an additional 853 beds and create about 180 new doctor-posts. Moreover, HA expects to have 120 vacancies from wastage and the Department of Health another 50. In short, some 350 posts will be available for some 350 graduates (assuming 150 to 175 graduates from each of our two medical schools).

          Yet, do not be overjoyed. The seemingly positive balance is only the result of needs in new hospitals which are still in the pipeline. What might the expected negative balance be after all the proposed hospitals have been commissioned? More, the figure failed to take into account the some 100 new graduates with the right to practise here who could be returning overseas; as well as the returned migrants.

          Nor are the dentists in any more favourable environment. By 1997, it was estimated that there might be up to 25% of excess of private dentists. In fact, dental practice profile survey in 1994 had already shown that private dentists had 27% of clinical time being unproductive.

          It may be said that the reasons behind the ¡§unemployment¡¨ saga of health care professionals are different from the rest of the labour force. The lack of jobs in the general labour market is almost entirely due to the economic downturn. Yet that of the doctors and dentists are an imbalance of supply and demand, resulted from poor manpower planning.

          It may well be said too that no Government should ever be responsible in providing jobs for all university graduates -- doctors and dentists are no exception. Yet, any accountable government must take into proper consideration of manpower needs from time to time to ensure against any shortage of professionals to provide some very much needed services. Similarly, there should never be an excess in supply either, for such tantamount to waste of public coffer -- it takes over $3.5 million to train a doctor or a dentist.

          It is time that the Education and Manpower Bureau, the University Grants Committee and the two universities should take a serious look into cutting their medical and dental student intake, if not already too late!

(Hongkong Standard)