5 April 1997

Fallacy in Manpower Planning leads to
Young Graduates desperate in job seeking

(Keywords:- medical graduates, unemployed, contract terms,  manpower needs)

          News that many young medical graduates may not be offered jobs in public medical institutions after their internship have hit the headline this week. There are postulations that some 50 doctors will be so affected. Others have indicated that some 100 are believed to be vying for each possible available post. In short, with three more months to go before they complete their internship, it has reached a panic state.

          This is by no means an isolated incident, nor is this year a peculiar one. In fact, public¡¦s attention was brought to the situation as early as 1991. Since then the issue has been a smouldering one surfacing yearly around May to June when young doctors are preparing to finish their pre-registration year of training.

          Why did it happen? Statistics showed that in the late 80s, before the Hospital Authority (HA) was established, the wastage rate for doctors in public hospitals was 16-17% for government hospitals and as high as 23% for subvented hospitals.

          Furthermore, in the wake of the signing of the Joint Declaration and the June 4th Incident of 1989, judging from the waves of emigration, Government estimated that by the year 2000, Hong Kong will be grossly deficient of doctors. As near as 1992, Government still maintained that there would be an annual shortfall of 84 doctors.

          Much have obviously changed in the last few years. The current wastage rate for HA doctors stands at around 6-7% yearly. Many are now returning from overseas ¡§safer haven¡¨ to the ¡§greener pasture¡¨ of Hong Kong. The result: supply outstrips demand, available jobs are difficult to come by.

          Whilst it must be said that no country can guarantee their university graduates of ¡§iron rice bowls¡¨. Yet any imbalance of production over needs will lead to inefficient use of taxpayers¡¦ money, for it cost an estimated over $2 million to nurture a medical student to graduation.

          It is high time for the Administration to look at the manpower need of the medical profession. Focus must be paid made not just on the total number of doctors, but the proper distribution in specialists. For in an affluent society of Hong Kong, it is not just quantity but quality care that our population expect. Calls for decreasing intake of medical students have been made to the annoyance of our two medical schools. Yet such pleas should be seriously considered rather than simply brush aside.

          It may be said that any medical graduate after completing his/her internship year are fully registrable and could therefore start his/her own private practice and assume self-employed, minimising the purported ¡§job shortage¡¨. Surveys amongst medical graduates however indicated that most hope to have a longer period of training before they are confident to stand on their own. Nor is it fair and to the best interest of the public to place them in the hands of such junior graduates when life is at stake.

          The suggestion by the HA that all new graduates be employed on a contract basis, if implemented properly, could therefore be considered as a possible step in the right direction. Through this initial contract of 2-3 years, a new doctor could be  given indepth knowledge and clinical experience. He/she could be rotated through the main medical specialties. On expiry of the contract, the promising and ambitious ones could be offered permanent posts for future designated specialty training, while the less academic orientated group could be allowed to move into general private practice, now much better equipped with some three years of well needed clinical experience!

          Yet, it must be in this light that contract terms be considered. There have been rumours that contract terms are to ensure that there will be a reasonable staff flow to ensure adequate posts for newcomers. Others have considered it to be a means to control staff emolument costs by capping the number of top salary staff. Let the Administration be warned that such ill intention is not acceptable. Let us hope that it is just ¡§smoke without any fire¡¨.

(Hongkong Standard)